Northgate Area leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Northgate Area typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Northgate Area, ~53% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Northgate Area compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Northgate Area is the least Democratic-leaning.
Northgate Area runs about 18 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Northgate Area leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Northgate Area, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 80% of adults in Northgate Area hold a bachelor's degree, about 51 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Northgate Area, Walnut Creek, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Northgate Area looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Northgate Area is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 77%, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in Northgate Area own their home, compared to around 55% in nearby neighborhoods. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Northgate Area have completed high school, above 91% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Pleasant Valley, Walnut Creek, CA D+49
- Downtown Walnut Creek, Walnut Creek, CA D+52
- Cambridge Park, Concord, CA D+40
- Ellis Lake, Concord, CA D+42
- Downtown Concord, Concord, CA D+44
- Pacheco-Martinez, Martinez, CA D+32
- Downtown Lafayette, Lafayette, CA D+53
- Piedmont Pines, Oakland, CA D+66
- Merriwood, Oakland, CA D+64
- Montclair, Oakland, CA D+71
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- The Palisades, Washington, DC D+68
- Miramonte, Tucson, AZ D+43
- Boston Edison, Detroit, MI D+84
- Charleston, Staten Island, NY R+51
- New Scotland-Woodlawn, Albany, NY D+60
- Tara Hills, San Pablo, CA D+35
- Fondren North Renaissance, Jackson, MS D+32
- East Congress, Austin, TX D+50
- North River Shores, Stuart, FL R+25
- North Park Forest, Houston, TX D+46
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.