Ellsworth Afb leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Ellsworth Afb typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ellsworth Afb, ~16% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ellsworth Afb compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ellsworth Afb leans more Republican than 1 of 23 neighbors.
Politically, Ellsworth Afb sits close to the rest of South Dakota.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ellsworth Afb. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+74) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 62 points.
Why Ellsworth Afb leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ellsworth Afb, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Ellsworth Afb votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 70%, far above the South Dakota average of 9%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Ellsworth Afb, SD sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Ellsworth Afb looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 90% of households in Ellsworth Afb rent, about 66 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 97% of adults in Ellsworth Afb have completed high school, above 88% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Box Elder, SD R+59
- Ashland Heights, SD R+46
- Rapid Valley, SD R+39
- Sulphur, SD R+35
- Rapid City, SD R+22
- Viewfield, SD R+77
- Caputa, SD R+67
- Black Hawk, SD R+46
- Farmingdale, SD R+66
- New Underwood, SD R+69
Cities with Similar Populations
- Loma, CO R+54
- Concord, GA R+67
- Osceola Mills, PA R+50
- Winterhaven, CA D+24
- Horseshoe Bend, AR R+53
- Belmont, MS R+78
- Nicholson, PA R+40
- Peachland, NC R+54
- Trinidad, CA D+47
- Red Rock, AZ R+43
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from South Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.