Elmdale leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Elmdale typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elmdale, ~19% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elmdale compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elmdale leans more Republican than 26 of 60 neighbors.
Elmdale runs about 52 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Elmdale is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Elmdale leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elmdale, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Elmdale votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Elmdale runs about 52 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Elmdale sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 78% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Elmdale, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Elmdale looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 25% of adults in Elmdale report food insecurity, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Little Bow, NY R+39
- Ruby Corner, NY R+41
- Wegatchie, NY R+40
- Rossie, NY R+41
- Gouverneur, NY R+34
- Somerville, NY R+38
- Oxbow, NY R+45
- Spragueville, NY R+44
- Richville, NY R+44
- Hammond, NY R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Morningdale, MA D+14
- Indian Gap, TX R+76
- Shallmar, MD R+67
- Excelsior, AR R+66
- Fairview, CO R+40
- Lago, ID R+75
- Max, MN R+21
- Sinclair, IA R+54
- Decatur City, IA R+46
- Yaleville, NY R+26
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.