Estill County is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Estill County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Estill County, ~12% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Estill County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Estill County leans more Republican than 19 of 27 neighbors.
Estill County runs about 33 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Why Estill County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Estill County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Estill County, about 96% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 12% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 7 points below the Kentucky average of 19%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Estill County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 13%, below 75% of counties).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Estill County, KY sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Estill County looks the way it does
Turnout in Estill County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Powell County, KY R+60
- Madison County, KY R+26
- Lee County, KY R+67
- Jackson County, KY R+73
- Clark County, KY R+39
- Montgomery County, KY R+52
- Owsley County, KY R+74
- Wolfe County, KY R+57
- Menifee County, KY R+64
- Rockcastle County, KY R+70
Counties with Similar Populations
- Massac County, IL R+46
- Claiborne Parish, LA R+11
- O'Brien County, IA R+54
- Atoka County, OK R+69
- Cedar County, MO R+65
- Rusk County, WI R+38
- Gulf County, FL R+56
- Franklin County, ID R+77
- York County, NE R+52
- Dickenson County, VA R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.