Madison County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Madison County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Madison County, ~25% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Madison County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Madison County leans more Republican than 2 of 29 neighbors.
Madison County runs about 4 points more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Madison County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+49) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+18), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Madison County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Madison County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Madison County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 48%, far above the Kentucky average of 18%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Madison County, KY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Madison County looks the way it does
Turnout in Madison County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Estill County, KY R+63
- Garrard County, KY R+59
- Clark County, KY R+39
- Jessamine County, KY R+35
- Rockcastle County, KY R+70
- Powell County, KY R+60
- Fayette County, KY D+24
- Lincoln County, KY R+64
- Jackson County, KY R+73
- Boyle County, KY R+29
Counties with Similar Populations
- Calvert County, MD R+14
- Bowie County, TX R+29
- Campbell County, KY R+16
- Tuscarawas County, OH R+48
- St. Croix County, WI R+20
- Lauderdale County, AL R+47
- Rockdale County, GA D+42
- Steuben County, NY R+32
- Pottawattamie County, IA R+18
- Northumberland County, PA R+39
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.