Ferguson leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Ferguson typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ferguson, ~19% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ferguson compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ferguson leans more Republican than 23 of 39 neighbors.
Ferguson runs about 21 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ferguson. The east side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+33), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Ferguson leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ferguson, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Ferguson live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Ferguson, AR does.
Why turnout in Ferguson looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Ferguson is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 7 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in Ferguson rent, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 29% of adults in Ferguson report food insecurity, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mellwood, AR R+9
- Rochdale, MS R+20
- Gunnison, MS D+41
- Hillhouse, MS R+16
- Waxhaw, MS D+50
- Perthshire, MS D+49
- Rena Lara, MS R+43
- Ethel, AR R+69
- Tichnor, AR R+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Paauhau, HI D+20
- Deep Hole, VA R+29
- Lanesport, AR R+53
- Seaman, WV R+65
- Mayberry, IL R+64
- Dunnstown, PA R+54
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.