Fredericksburg City leans Democratic by roughly 28 points: about 64% of voters vote Democratic and 36% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Fredericksburg City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fredericksburg City, ~44% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fredericksburg City compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Fredericksburg City leans more Democratic than 21 of 28 neighbors.
Fredericksburg City runs about 22 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Fredericksburg City. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+52) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+11), a spread of about 41 points.
Why Fredericksburg City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fredericksburg City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 46% of adults in Fredericksburg City hold a bachelor's degree, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Fredericksburg City sits in the top fifth on density (about 80%, above 95% of counties). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 46% of adults in Fredericksburg City have never been married, above 98% of counties.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Fredericksburg City, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Fredericksburg City looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Fredericksburg City is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Spotsylvania County, VA R+8
- Stafford County, VA D+6
- King George County, VA R+23
- Caroline County, VA R+15
- Orange County, VA R+30
- Prince William County, VA D+21
- Culpeper County, VA R+23
- Manassas City, VA D+14
- Fauquier County, VA R+19
- Manassas Park City, VA D+19
Counties with Similar Populations
- Peach County, GA D+7
- Logan County, IL R+41
- Scott County, MS R+18
- White County, GA R+58
- Monroe County, GA R+42
- Dinwiddie County, VA R+16
- Randolph County, WV R+51
- Hocking County, OH R+51
- Tate County, MS R+35
- Currituck County, NC R+49
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.