Stafford County leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Stafford County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Stafford County, ~43% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Stafford County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Stafford County leans more Democratic than 13 of 27 neighbors.
Politically, Stafford County sits close to the rest of Virginia.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Stafford County. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Stafford County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Stafford County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 55% of residents in Stafford County live in densely developed areas, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Stafford County sits in the top quarter (about 44%, above 94% of counties).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Stafford County, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Stafford County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Stafford County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 81% of households in Stafford County own their home, above 84% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Fredericksburg City, VA D+28
- Spotsylvania County, VA R+8
- King George County, VA R+23
- Prince William County, VA D+21
- Manassas City, VA D+14
- Manassas Park City, VA D+19
- Fauquier County, VA R+19
- Caroline County, VA R+15
- Orange County, VA R+30
- Charles County, MD D+38
Counties with Similar Populations
- Rankin County, MS R+42
- Bibb County, GA D+33
- Madera County, CA R+11
- Columbia County, GA R+21
- Franklin County, PA R+41
- Schenectady County, NY D+17
- Mesa County, CO R+20
- Sullivan County, TN R+50
- Centre County, PA D+8
- Stearns County, MN R+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.