Caroline County leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Caroline County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caroline County, ~34% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caroline County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Caroline County leans more Republican than 11 of 23 neighbors.
Caroline County runs about 20 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Caroline County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Caroline County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+27) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Caroline County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caroline County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Caroline County votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Caroline County runs about 20 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Caroline County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 13%, below 76% of counties).
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Caroline County, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Caroline County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 83% of households in Caroline County own their home, about 7 points above the Virginia average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Spotsylvania County, VA R+8
- Fredericksburg City, VA D+28
- Hanover County, VA R+21
- King George County, VA R+23
- Stafford County, VA D+6
- Henrico County, VA D+31
- Louisa County, VA R+32
- King William County, VA R+38
- Essex County, VA R+8
- Goochland County, VA R+21
Counties with Similar Populations
- Jefferson County, ID R+71
- Freeborn County, MN R+22
- Clare County, MI R+40
- Sheridan County, WY R+47
- Muhlenberg County, KY R+55
- McCurtain County, OK R+55
- Greene County, IN R+55
- Wabash County, IN R+48
- Bolivar County, MS D+34
- Obion County, TN R+52
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.