Gardiner, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Gardiner

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Gardiner leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.

 

About 85% of adults in Gardiner typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gardiner, ~48% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Gardiner compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Gardiner leans more Democratic than 91 of 128 neighbors.

Politically, Gardiner sits close to the rest of New York.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Gardiner. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+31) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+25), a spread of about 56 points.

Why Gardiner leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gardiner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 38% of adults in Gardiner hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in Gardiner have never been married, above 87% of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Gardiner, NY sits above the national average on this measure.

Why turnout in Gardiner looks the way it does

Turnout in Gardiner sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.