Guernsey is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Guernsey typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guernsey, ~10% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Guernsey compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Guernsey is the most Republican-leaning.
Guernsey runs about 77 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Guernsey is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Guernsey. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+58) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+39), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Guernsey leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guernsey, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Guernsey votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Guernsey runs about 77 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Guernsey are family households, above 78% of cities.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Guernsey, CA does.
Why turnout in Guernsey looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Guernsey is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 64% of households in Guernsey rent, about 39 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in Guernsey have more than one occupant per room, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hanford, CA R+15
- Armona, CA R+19
- Goshen, CA R+33
- Waukena, CA R+48
- Corcoran, CA D+10
- Lemoore, CA R+15
- Hardwick, CA R+53
- Stratford, CA Even
- Traver, CA R+43
- Tulare, CA R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Osage, MN R+51
- Wheatland, IN R+63
- Flag Pond, TN R+70
- Turk Lake, MI R+45
- Nemacolin, PA R+47
- Modoc, IN R+59
- Titonka, IA R+55
- Craft, TX R+66
- Wadestown, WV R+58
- Linn, TX R+28
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.