Hagerstown leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Hagerstown typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hagerstown, ~30% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hagerstown compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hagerstown leans more Republican than 10 of 105 neighbors.
Hagerstown runs about 34 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Hagerstown is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hagerstown. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+18), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Hagerstown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hagerstown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hagerstown votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, well above the Maryland average of 43%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Hagerstown runs against the grain of Maryland, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Hagerstown, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Hagerstown looks the way it does
Turnout in Hagerstown sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Funkstown, MD R+15
- Halfway, MD R+24
- Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, MD R+9
- Maugansville, MD R+16
- St. James, MD R+14
- Cearfoss, MD R+34
- Williamsport, MD R+31
- State Line, PA R+53
- Jugtown, MD R+37
- Wilson-Conococheague, MD R+56
Cities with Similar Populations
- Brighton, CO R+5
- Mansfield, TX R+5
- Watsonville, CA D+36
- Ellicott City, MD D+33
- Lynnwood, WA D+21
- Middletown, OH R+23
- Easton, PA D+13
- Alameda, CA D+60
- Fort Mill, SC R+16
- Schaumburg, IL D+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.