Harding-Birch Lakes leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 70% of adults in Harding-Birch Lakes typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Harding-Birch Lakes, ~27% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Harding-Birch Lakes compares
Harding-Birch Lakes sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable cities nearby.
Harding-Birch Lakes runs about 11 points more Republican than Alaska as a whole.
Why Harding-Birch Lakes leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Harding-Birch Lakes. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Harding-Birch Lakes, AK sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Harding-Birch Lakes looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 96% of households in Harding-Birch Lakes own their home, about 28 points above the Alaska average of 68%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Harding-Birch Lakes have completed high school, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Salcha, AK R+24
- Eielson Afb, AK R+19
- North Pole, AK R+17
- Badger, AK R+25
- Pleasant Valley, AK R+23
- Two Rivers, AK R+24
- South Van Horn, AK R+19
- Fort Wainwright, AK R+22
- Steele Creek, AK R+27
- Delta Junction, AK R+43
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hoover, IN R+56
- Wainville, WV R+73
- Hickory Hill, FL R+81
- Vernon, CO R+75
- Virlilia, MS R+33
- Lenox, TN R+76
- Guilford, MO R+58
- Campus, IL R+50
- North Wade, ME R+41
- Bleecker, NY R+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.