Hartley is a Republican stronghold. About 9% of voters here vote Democratic and 91% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Hartley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hartley, ~4% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hartley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hartley leans more Republican than 2 of 4 neighbors.
Hartley runs about 69 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Why Hartley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hartley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 11% of adults in Hartley hold a bachelor's degree, about 15 points below the Texas average of 26%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Hartley sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 79% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Hartley are family households, above 94% of cities.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a high uninsured rate tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Hartley, TX does.
Why turnout in Hartley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hartley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in Hartley have completed high school, below 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Dalhart, TX R+50
- Middle Water, TX R+86
- Channing, TX R+87
- Four Way, TX R+73
- Etter, TX R+65
- Cactus, TX R+10
- Dumas, TX R+33
- Romero, TX R+87
- Stratford, TX R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rose Hill, VA R+70
- Ola, TX R+58
- Sandy Hook, VA R+25
- Garrett Park, MD D+68
- Bennington, NH R+10
- Trimble, MO R+52
- Tsaile, AZ D+62
- Shady Point, OK R+70
- Glendale, OR R+36
- Rosman, NC R+43
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.