Hilmar leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Hilmar typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hilmar, ~15% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hilmar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hilmar leans more Republican than 28 of 32 neighbors.
Hilmar runs about 68 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Hilmar is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Hilmar. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+42), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Hilmar leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hilmar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 10% of adults in Hilmar hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points below the California average of 35%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Hilmar runs against that pattern. Hilmar runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Hilmar, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Hilmar looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 46% of households in Hilmar rent, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in Hilmar have more than one occupant per room, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Irwin, CA R+60
- Delhi, CA R+5
- Stevinson, CA R+50
- Turlock, CA R+13
- Livingston, CA D+3
- Crows Landing, CA R+34
- Denair, CA R+43
- Ballico, CA R+39
- Keyes, CA R+16
- Cressey, CA R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Alamo Heights, TX D+7
- Lincroft, NJ R+25
- Welcome, SC D+6
- Glenn Dale, MD D+71
- Halifax, PA R+51
- Centralia, MO R+36
- Kentwood, LA R+30
- Anadarko, OK R+24
- Bayfield, CO R+11
- Elizabethtown, NC R+2
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.