Keyes leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Keyes typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Keyes, ~22% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Keyes compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Keyes leans more Republican than 12 of 35 neighbors.
Keyes runs about 36 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Keyes is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Keyes. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 43 points.
Why Keyes leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Keyes, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 8% of adults in Keyes hold a bachelor's degree, about 27 points below the California average of 35%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Keyes runs against that pattern. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Keyes are family households, above 94% of cities.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Keyes, CA does.
Why turnout in Keyes looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Keyes is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 12 points below the California average of 62%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Keyes report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 67% of adults in Keyes have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ceres, CA R+5
- Hughson, CA R+33
- Turlock, CA R+13
- Empire, CA R+38
- Denair, CA R+43
- Modesto, CA Even
- Waterford, CA R+30
- Hilmar, CA R+48
- Irwin, CA R+60
- Riverbank, CA R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Perry, MI R+31
- Coal City, IL R+30
- Cross Plains, WI D+25
- Fairmont, NC Even
- Poughquag, NY R+23
- Kirtland, OH R+21
- Huntington, TX R+79
- Iowa Colony, TX D+5
- North Grafton, MA D+11
- Peoria Heights, IL D+11
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.