Turlock leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Turlock typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Turlock, ~24% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Turlock compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Turlock leans more Republican than 9 of 34 neighbors.
Turlock runs about 33 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Turlock is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Turlock. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+25) and the south side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Turlock leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Turlock, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Turlock votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 88%, far above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Turlock runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Turlock, CA does.
Why turnout in Turlock looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Turlock is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 44% of households in Turlock rent, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in Turlock have more than one occupant per room, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Denair, CA R+43
- Keyes, CA R+16
- Hughson, CA R+33
- Delhi, CA R+5
- Irwin, CA R+60
- Hilmar, CA R+48
- Ceres, CA R+5
- Ballico, CA R+39
- Empire, CA R+38
- Waterford, CA R+30
Cities with Similar Populations
- St. Joseph, MO R+21
- Folsom, CA D+9
- Smyrna, GA D+34
- Spokane Valley, WA R+11
- Parma, OH R+4
- Marysville, WA Even
- Jackson, TN D+8
- Apopka, FL D+4
- Mechanicsburg, PA R+3
- Buford, GA R+3
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.