Johnson City leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Johnson City typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Johnson City, ~23% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Johnson City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Johnson City is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Johnson City sits close to the rest of Tennessee.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Johnson City. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 52 points.
Why Johnson City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Johnson City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Johnson City votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 69%, far above the Tennessee average of 21%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Johnson City, TN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Johnson City looks the way it does
Turnout in Johnson City sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Jonesborough, TN R+55
- Marbleton, TN R+62
- Okolona, TN R+59
- Watauga, TN R+69
- Piney Flats, TN R+55
- Elizabethton, TN R+58
- Unicoi, TN R+59
- Gap Creek, TN R+67
- Telford, TN R+69
- Keenburg, TN R+71
Cities with Similar Populations
- Winter Haven, FL R+13
- Bremerton, WA D+17
- San Tan Valley, AZ R+24
- Redwood City, CA D+53
- Fishers, IN D+2
- Valdosta, GA D+10
- Fall River, MA Even
- Westminster, CA R+5
- Auburn, WA D+18
- Missoula, MT D+25
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.