Missoula, MT Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Missoula

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Missoula leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.

 

About 78% of adults in Missoula typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Missoula, ~49% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Missoula compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Missoula is the most Democratic-leaning.

Missoula runs about 45 points more Democratic than Montana as a whole. Montana leans Republican overall, while Missoula is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Missoula. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+43) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 51 points.

Why Missoula leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Missoula, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 73% of residents in Missoula live in densely developed areas, about 37 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Missoula sits in the top quarter (about 50%, above 93% of cities). Missoula runs against the grain of Montana, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Missoula, MT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Missoula looks the way it does

Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Missoula have completed high school, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.