San Tan Valley, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in San Tan Valley

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

San Tan Valley leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.

 

About 71% of adults in San Tan Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Tan Valley, ~27% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How San Tan Valley compares

Among cities within 25 miles, San Tan Valley leans more Republican than 17 of 28 neighbors.

San Tan Valley runs about 18 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Tan Valley. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+19), a spread of about 27 points.

Why San Tan Valley leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Tan Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

San Tan Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 71%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in San Tan Valley are family households, above 90% of cities.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; San Tan Valley, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in San Tan Valley looks the way it does

Turnout in San Tan Valley sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.