Kawela Bay, HI Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Kawela Bay

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Kawela Bay is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About 63% of adults in Kawela Bay typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kawela Bay, ~31% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Kawela Bay compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Kawela Bay sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 26 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 2 leaning the other way.

Kawela Bay runs about 24 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole. Hawaii leans Democratic overall, while Kawela Bay sits closer to the political middle.

Why Kawela Bay leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Kawela Bay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Kawela Bay votes against the grain of Hawaii. Hawaii leans Democratic overall, while Kawela Bay runs about 24 points more Republican.

Population density and Republican lean

Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Kawela Bay, HI sits below the national average on this measure.

Why turnout in Kawela Bay looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Kawela Bay is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.