Lake Mathews leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Lake Mathews typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Mathews, ~16% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Mathews compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Mathews leans more Republican than 62 of 64 neighbors.
Lake Mathews runs about 51 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lake Mathews is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Mathews. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Lake Mathews leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Mathews, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Mathews votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Lake Mathews runs about 51 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Lake Mathews runs against that pattern. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in Lake Mathews are family households, above 93% of cities.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Lake Mathews, CA does.
Why turnout in Lake Mathews looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 13% of homes in Lake Mathews have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Woodcrest, CA R+17
- Mead Valley, CA Even
- Good Hope, CA D+4
- March ARB, CA Even
- Temescal Valley, CA R+12
- Alberhill, CA R+26
- Meadowbrook, CA R+11
- Riverside, CA Even
- Perris, CA D+14
- Lake Elsinore, CA R+9
Cities with Similar Populations
- Winterport, ME Even
- Sterling, AK R+39
- Juno Beach, FL R+32
- New Middletown, OH R+34
- Hesston, KS R+37
- Mertztown, PA R+35
- Lansford, PA R+25
- Santee, SC D+20
- York Springs, PA R+47
- Greenwood, LA R+23
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.