Lakeville leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Lakeville typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lakeville, ~35% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lakeville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lakeville is the least Democratic-leaning.
Lakeville runs about 5 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lakeville. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+36) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+11), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Lakeville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lakeville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 47% of adults in Lakeville hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Lakeville have never been married, above 80% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lakeville, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Lakeville looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 31% of households in Lakeville rent, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Lakeville sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Petaluma, CA D+42
- Penngrove, CA D+27
- Cotati, CA D+40
- Rohnert Park, CA D+38
- Tomales, CA D+35
- Fallon, CA D+36
- El Verano, CA D+43
- Marshall, CA D+36
- Sebastopol, CA D+50
- Inverness, CA D+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Botkins, OH R+74
- Arlington, NE R+47
- Enon Valley, PA R+54
- Cove, OR R+54
- St. Paul, TX R+23
- Roaming Shores, OH R+42
- Salina, AZ D+54
- Sarepta, LA R+76
- Hurstbourne Acres, KY D+21
- Bancroft, MI R+40
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.