Tomales leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Tomales typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tomales, ~29% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tomales compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tomales leans more Democratic than 6 of 45 neighbors.
Tomales runs about 15 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Tomales leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tomales, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 51% of adults in Tomales hold a bachelor's degree, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Tomales, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tomales looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 36% of households in Tomales rent, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Tomales sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fallon, CA D+36
- Dillon Beach, CA D+36
- Valley Ford, CA D+40
- Marshall, CA D+36
- Lakeville, CA D+15
- Bodega, CA D+44
- Bodega Bay, CA D+42
- Inverness, CA D+60
- Sebastopol, CA D+50
- Salmon Creek, CA D+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Seven Mile Ford, VA R+55
- Old Bennington, VT D+39
- Leon, WI R+37
- Namur, WI R+28
- Naftel, AL R+53
- Salt Sulphur Springs, WV R+58
- Twin Lakes, OH R+3
- Lanesboro, IA R+57
- Vedin Corner, SD R+56
- Bridgeton, NC R+44
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.