Lincoln Estates leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Lincoln Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln Estates, ~32% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln Estates compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lincoln Estates leans more Republican than 92 of 132 neighbors.
Lincoln Estates runs about 23 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Lincoln Estates is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Lincoln Estates leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lincoln Estates votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 46%, modestly above the Illinois average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Lincoln Estates runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lincoln Estates, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Lincoln Estates looks the way it does
Turnout in Lincoln Estates sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Frankfort Square, IL R+13
- Frankfort, IL R+7
- Matteson, IL D+70
- Richton Park, IL D+79
- Monee, IL R+2
- Mokena, IL R+17
- Park Forest, IL D+69
- Olympia Fields, IL D+77
- University Park, IL D+71
- Tinley Park, IL R+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pine Springs, AZ D+51
- Allouez, MI R+9
- Eaton, ID R+62
- New Floodwood, OH R+41
- Elk River, ID R+62
- North Elmore, AL R+61
- Stanhope, MO R+60
- Stanton, PA R+67
- Drury, MA R+8
- Van Cleve, MO R+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.