Lincoln leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Lincoln typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln, ~22% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lincoln leans more Republican than 2 of 5 neighbors.
Lincoln runs about 26 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lincoln. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+55) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+43), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Lincoln leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Lincoln live in densely developed areas, about 12 points below the Montana average of 13%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Lincoln, MT sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Lincoln looks the way it does
Turnout in Lincoln sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Helmville, MT R+57
- Ovando, MT R+57
- Canyon Creek, MT R+42
- Avon, MT R+61
- Marysville, MT R+42
- Garrison, MT R+57
- Elliston, MT R+51
- Drummond, MT R+53
- Gold Creek, MT R+57
- Wolf Creek, MT R+44
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zion Grove, PA R+49
- Oilton, OK R+68
- Powell, AL R+72
- Bruceville, IN R+59
- Chaffee, NY R+45
- Cavalero, WA R+4
- King City, MO R+62
- Ventura, IA R+32
- Wheeler, IN R+33
- Kelso, TN R+76
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.