Lincoln is a Republican stronghold. About 25% of voters here vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Lincoln typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln, ~14% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lincoln leans more Republican than 8 of 12 neighbors.
Lincoln runs about 56 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Lincoln is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lincoln. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+46), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Lincoln leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lincoln votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Lincoln runs about 56 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Lincoln sits in the bottom quarter on density (fewer than 1%, in the bottom fraction of cities).
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Lincoln, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lincoln looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lincoln is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- San Patricio, NM R+46
- Fort Stanton, NM R+41
- Hondo, NM R+46
- Capitan, NM R+53
- Glencoe, NM R+42
- Alto, NM R+26
- Nogal, NM R+55
- Ruidoso Downs, NM R+24
- Tinnie, NM R+57
- Ruidoso, NM R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zag, KY R+65
- Warda, TX R+68
- Vilas, CO R+69
- Altair, TX R+63
- Highland View, FL R+49
- Ellisville, IL R+51
- Shelby, IN R+52
- Santee Circle, SC R+36
- Nymph, AL D+10
- Saratoga, MN R+38
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.