Lockhart leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 31% of adults in Lockhart typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lockhart, ~8% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~69% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lockhart compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lockhart is the most Republican-leaning.
Lockhart runs about 68 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lockhart is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lockhart. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+50) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Lockhart leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lockhart, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in Lockhart hold a bachelor's degree, about 29 points below the California average of 35%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Lockhart sits in the bottom quarter on density (fewer than 1%, in the bottom fraction of cities). Lockhart runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Lockhart, CA does.
Why turnout in Lockhart looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 13% of homes in Lockhart have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of cities. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in Lockhart rent, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hinkley, CA R+41
- Hodge, CA R+32
- Boron, CA R+35
- Desert Lake, CA R+45
- Lenwood, CA R+23
- Helendale, CA R+29
- Barstow, CA R+13
- Nebo Center, CA R+23
- Oro Grande, CA R+18
- North Edwards, CA R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- North Concord, VT R+37
- Highland Park, VA D+9
- Nottinghill, MO R+65
- St. Mary, MT D+36
- Pastura, NM R+5
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.