Locust Creek leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Locust Creek typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Locust Creek, ~24% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Locust Creek compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Locust Creek leans more Republican than 72 of 79 neighbors.
Locust Creek runs about 46 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Locust Creek is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Locust Creek. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+34), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Locust Creek leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Locust Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Locust Creek votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Locust Creek runs about 46 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Locust Creek are family households, above 78% of cities.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Locust Creek, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Locust Creek looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Locust Creek is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bumpass, VA R+42
- Montpelier, VA R+34
- Dabneys, VA R+35
- Beaverdam, VA R+30
- Rockville, VA R+27
- Gum Spring, VA R+32
- South Anna, VA R+40
- Hewlett, VA R+30
- Maidens, VA R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cayuta, NY R+36
- Elgin, ND R+72
- Pleasant Valley, MD R+41
- New Site, AL R+81
- New Trier, MN R+44
- Shoreham, MN R+32
- Mohawk, WV R+89
- Tabler, OK R+70
- Tilghman, MD R+22
- Quemado, TX R+31
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.