Locust Valley leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Locust Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Locust Valley, ~32% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Locust Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Locust Valley leans more Republican than 214 of 268 neighbors.
Locust Valley runs about 28 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Locust Valley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Locust Valley. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+24) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Locust Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Locust Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Locust Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 86%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 84% of households in Locust Valley are family households, above 96% of cities. Locust Valley runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Locust Valley, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Locust Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Locust Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lattingtown, NY R+10
- Matinecock, NY R+10
- Mill Neck, NY R+8
- Glen Cove, NY Even
- Bayville, NY R+23
- Upper Brookville, NY R+20
- Old Brookville, NY R+21
- Oyster Bay, NY R+13
- Sea Cliff, NY D+29
- Glen Head, NY R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hartly, DE R+44
- Simms, LA R+81
- Brodhead, KY R+72
- Clarksville, VA R+26
- Brownsville, KY R+67
- Marshalls Creek, PA Even
- Sunderland, MA D+48
- Hillsboro, TN R+69
- Lawrence, MI R+28
- Deephaven, MN D+24
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.