Lucerne leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Lucerne typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lucerne, ~23% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lucerne compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lucerne leans more Republican than 24 of 30 neighbors.
Lucerne runs about 30 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lucerne is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Lucerne leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lucerne, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lucerne votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Lucerne runs about 30 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Lucerne sits in the bottom quarter (about 6%, below 98% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Lucerne, CA sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Lucerne looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 8% of homes in Lucerne have more than one occupant per room, above 95% of cities. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Lucerne rent, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Nice, CA R+3
- Glenhaven, CA D+8
- North Lakeport, CA R+18
- Lakeport, CA R+7
- Soda Bay, CA Even
- Upper Lake, CA R+7
- Kelseyville, CA D+2
- Clearlake Oaks, CA Even
- Finley, CA R+10
- Clearlake Park, CA R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Friedens, PA R+60
- Jesup, IA R+36
- Monroe City, MO R+50
- Kingston, OH R+53
- Cochranton, PA R+51
- Dolgeville, NY R+32
- Cleveland, AL R+81
- Bon Secour, AL R+59
- Morenci, MI R+47
- Brooklyn, WI D+8
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.