Upper Lake leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Upper Lake typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper Lake, ~24% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Upper Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Upper Lake leans more Republican than 17 of 27 neighbors.
Upper Lake runs about 27 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Upper Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Upper Lake. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+19) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Upper Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upper Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Upper Lake votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Upper Lake runs about 27 points more Republican.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a never-married-heavy adult population tend to turn out at a lower rate; Upper Lake, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Upper Lake looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 5% of homes in Upper Lake have more than one occupant per room, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Nice, CA R+3
- North Lakeport, CA R+18
- Witter Springs, CA R+7
- Lakeport, CA R+7
- Lucerne, CA R+10
- Finley, CA R+10
- Vichy Springs, CA D+26
- Glenhaven, CA D+8
- Soda Bay, CA Even
- Kelseyville, CA D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Petersburg, TN R+70
- Odum, GA R+81
- Loretto, MN R+21
- Hatch, NM Even
- Chackbay, LA R+80
- Eva, AL R+81
- Buckeye Lake, OH R+38
- Roaring River, NC R+62
- Olanta, SC R+23
- Walterhill, TN R+48
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.