Magnolia leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Magnolia typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Magnolia, ~24% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Magnolia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Magnolia leans more Republican than 4 of 46 neighbors.
Magnolia runs about 25 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Magnolia. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+46) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+48), a spread of about 94 points.
Why Magnolia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Magnolia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Magnolia votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 56%, far above the Arkansas average of 13%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Magnolia, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Magnolia looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Magnolia is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 11 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in Magnolia rent, compared to around 16% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Magnolia report food insecurity, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Partee, AR D+24
- Free Hope, AR R+49
- Kerlin, AR R+33
- Dodson, AR R+53
- Waldo, AR R+21
- McNeil, AR R+20
- Lydesdale, AR R+32
- Brister, AR R+43
- Lumber, AR R+66
- Ebenezer, AR R+54
Cities with Similar Populations
- New Palestine, IN R+41
- Bound Brook, NJ D+17
- Port Neches, TX R+51
- Monticello, IN R+39
- Lakeland Village, CA R+16
- Dillon, SC D+7
- Rayne, LA R+49
- Jefferson Valley-Yorktown, NY R+8
- North Auburn, CA R+13
- Walton, KY R+41
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.