Mandarin, Jacksonville, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Mandarin

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Mandarin leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.

 

About 89% of adults in Mandarin typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mandarin, ~28% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Mandarin compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Mandarin is the most Republican-leaning.

Mandarin runs about 25 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.

Why Mandarin leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mandarin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Mandarin sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 78% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 19 points above the Florida average of 60%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Mandarin are family households, above 77% of neighborhoods.

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Mandarin, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Mandarin looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Mandarin is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in Mandarin own their home, compared to around 61% in nearby neighborhoods. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Mandarin have completed high school, above 86% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.