Mariposa County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Mariposa County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mariposa County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mariposa County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Mariposa County leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Mariposa County runs about 36 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Mariposa County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Mariposa County. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 56 points.
Why Mariposa County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mariposa County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in Mariposa County live in densely developed areas, about 52 points below the California average of 58%. Mariposa County runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Mariposa County, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Mariposa County looks the way it does
Turnout in Mariposa County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Madera County, CA R+11
- Tuolumne County, CA R+18
- Merced County, CA R+3
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Fresno County, CA D+3
- Calaveras County, CA R+29
- Mono County, CA D+13
- Amador County, CA R+35
- San Joaquin County, CA D+4
- Alpine County, CA D+36
Counties with Similar Populations
- Tama County, IA R+25
- Mason County, KY R+42
- Henry County, AL R+45
- Arkansas County, AR R+33
- Chickasaw County, MS R+12
- Cooper County, MO R+46
- Franklin County, AR R+64
- Park County, MT R+14
- Dallas County, MO R+66
- Ben Hill County, GA R+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.