Fresno County is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Fresno County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fresno County, ~25% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fresno County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Fresno County sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 3 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 0 leaning the other way.
Fresno County runs about 18 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Fresno County. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+21), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Fresno County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Fresno County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Fresno County, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Fresno County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Fresno County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 44% of households in Fresno County rent, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Fresno County report food insecurity, above 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Madera County, CA R+11
- Kings County, CA R+10
- Tulare County, CA R+12
- Mariposa County, CA R+16
- Merced County, CA R+3
- Mono County, CA D+13
- Inyo County, CA R+4
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Tuolumne County, CA R+18
- San Benito County, CA D+12
Counties with Similar Populations
- Westchester County, NY D+27
- St. Louis County, MO D+28
- Honolulu County, HI D+18
- Duval County, FL D+7
- Marion County, IN D+29
- Pima County, AZ D+16
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Gwinnett County, GA D+21
- Bergen County, NJ D+5
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.