Madera County leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Madera County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Madera County, ~22% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Madera County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Madera County leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Madera County runs about 31 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Madera County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Madera County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+42), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Madera County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Madera County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Madera County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 54%, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Madera County are family households, above 96% of counties. Madera County runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Madera County, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Madera County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Madera County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in Madera County rent, above 88% of counties. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in Madera County report food insecurity, above 96% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Fresno County, CA D+3
- Mariposa County, CA R+16
- Merced County, CA R+3
- Kings County, CA R+10
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Tuolumne County, CA R+18
- Tulare County, CA R+12
- Mono County, CA D+13
- San Benito County, CA D+12
- Calaveras County, CA R+29
Counties with Similar Populations
- Columbia County, GA R+21
- Franklin County, PA R+41
- Mesa County, CO R+20
- Stafford County, VA D+6
- Rankin County, MS R+42
- Bibb County, GA D+33
- Santa Fe County, NM D+45
- Monroe County, MI R+27
- Washington County, MD R+18
- Schenectady County, NY D+17
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.