McMinnville, TN Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in McMinnville

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

McMinnville is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.

 

About 60% of adults in McMinnville typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in McMinnville, ~12% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How McMinnville compares

Among cities within 25 miles, McMinnville leans more Republican than 6 of 74 neighbors.

McMinnville runs about 30 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within McMinnville. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+70) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+53), a spread of about 17 points.

Why McMinnville leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for McMinnville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

McMinnville votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 37%, well above the Tennessee average of 21%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and McMinnville sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 83% of cities).

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; McMinnville, TN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in McMinnville looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. McMinnville is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 31% of households in McMinnville rent, above 86% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in McMinnville have completed high school, below 78% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.