Menifee leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Menifee typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Menifee, ~28% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Menifee compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Menifee leans more Republican than 22 of 46 neighbors.
Menifee runs about 35 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Menifee is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Menifee. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+20) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Menifee leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Menifee, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Menifee votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, modestly above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Menifee are family households, above 85% of cities. Menifee runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Menifee, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Menifee looks the way it does
Turnout in Menifee sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sun City, CA R+15
- Canyon Lake, CA R+24
- Homeland, CA R+18
- Winchester, CA R+22
- Meadowbrook, CA R+11
- Wildomar, CA R+22
- Good Hope, CA D+4
- French Valley, CA R+17
- Perris, CA D+14
- Murrieta, CA R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Brockton, MA D+42
- Missouri City, TX D+36
- Allen, TX R+5
- Sandy, UT D+4
- Frederick, MD D+27
- Fayetteville, AR D+17
- Roswell, GA D+7
- Georgetown, TX R+15
- Rio Rancho, NM R+4
- San Marcos, CA D+11
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.