Middle River leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Middle River typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middle River, ~14% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middle River compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middle River leans more Republican than 3 of 12 neighbors.
Middle River runs about 47 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Middle River is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Middle River leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middle River, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middle River votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Middle River runs about 47 points more Republican. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Middle River fits that profile on both counts.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Middle River, MN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Middle River looks the way it does
Turnout in Middle River sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Newfolden, MN R+53
- Strathcona, MN R+48
- Strandquist, MN R+54
- Gatzke, MN R+40
- Florian, MN R+54
- Viking, MN R+55
- Karlstad, MN R+42
- Greenbush, MN R+52
- Thief River Falls, MN R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Nelson, WI R+31
- Machpelah, NC R+42
- Neptune, OH R+72
- Birchleaf, VA R+68
- Smith, NV R+53
- Village Mills, TX R+84
- Bombay, NY R+26
- Talisheek, LA R+67
- Ava, NY R+49
- Baldwin, ND R+65
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.