Middleburg leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Middleburg typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middleburg, ~22% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middleburg compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middleburg leans more Republican than 15 of 32 neighbors.
Middleburg runs about 33 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middleburg. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+70) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+33), a spread of about 37 points.
Why Middleburg leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middleburg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middleburg votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 49%, modestly below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Middleburg are family households, above 75% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Middleburg, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Middleburg looks the way it does
Turnout in Middleburg sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Asbury Lake, FL R+48
- Russell, FL R+48
- Oakleaf Plantation, FL D+7
- Lakeside, FL R+28
- Penney Farms, FL R+52
- Orange Park, FL R+23
- Fleming Island, FL R+34
- Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL R+8
- Green Cove Springs, FL R+38
- Hugh, FL R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Spring Valley, NY Even
- Kendale Lakes, FL R+39
- Lombard, IL D+14
- Bluffton, SC R+16
- Princeton, NJ D+53
- Sevierville, TN R+58
- Rockwall, TX R+31
- Campbell, CA D+31
- Cathedral City, CA D+22
- Dunwoody, GA D+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.