Orange Park leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Orange Park typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Orange Park, ~27% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Orange Park compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Orange Park leans more Republican than 7 of 30 neighbors.
Orange Park runs about 10 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Orange Park. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Orange Park leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Orange Park, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Orange Park votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 57%, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Orange Park, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Orange Park looks the way it does
Turnout in Orange Park sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL R+8
- Lakeside, FL R+28
- Oakleaf Plantation, FL D+7
- Fleming Island, FL R+34
- Russell, FL R+48
- Middleburg, FL R+46
- Asbury Lake, FL R+48
- Fruit Cove, FL R+30
- Magnolia Springs, FL R+35
- Jacksonville, FL R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ellenton, FL R+19
- Corning, CA R+31
- Lamont, CA D+15
- San Anselmo, CA D+60
- Tenafly, NJ D+26
- Mastic, NY R+15
- Fort Drum, NY R+3
- Morgan City, LA R+36
- New Kensington, PA R+8
- Clinton, MA D+12
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.