Middleburg is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Middleburg typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middleburg, ~14% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middleburg compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middleburg leans more Republican than 68 of 122 neighbors.
Middleburg runs about 61 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middleburg. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+69) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+57), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Middleburg leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middleburg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Middleburg, about 95% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 17% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points below the Pennsylvania average of 26%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Middleburg runs against that pattern.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Middleburg, PA sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Middleburg looks the way it does
Turnout in Middleburg sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kreamer, PA R+62
- Kissimmee, PA R+70
- Paxtonville, PA R+71
- Penns Creek, PA R+69
- Freeburg, PA R+52
- New Berlin, PA R+48
- Mount Pleasant Mills, PA R+68
- Beavertown, PA R+68
- Kratzerville, PA R+54
- Swengel, PA R+65
Cities with Similar Populations
- East Bend, NC R+65
- Wayzata, MN D+18
- Diamond Springs, CA R+29
- Gotha, FL D+3
- Manchester, MI R+10
- Williams, CA R+5
- Orleans, MA D+38
- Imperial, PA R+14
- Gulf Park Estates, MS R+39
- Wesley Hills, NY R+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.