Middlesex County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 87% of adults in Middlesex County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middlesex County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middlesex County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Middlesex County leans more Republican than 16 of 23 neighbors.
Middlesex County runs about 33 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Middlesex County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Middlesex County. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Middlesex County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middlesex County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middlesex County votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Middlesex County runs about 33 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Middlesex County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 9%, below 83% of counties).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Middlesex County, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Middlesex County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Middlesex County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 87% of households in Middlesex County own their home, above 97% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lancaster County, VA R+9
- Mathews County, VA R+39
- Gloucester County, VA R+38
- Northumberland County, VA R+19
- King and Queen County, VA R+28
- Williamsburg City, VA D+43
- James City County, VA D+8
- Richmond County, VA R+33
- York County, VA R+3
- New Kent County, VA R+28
Counties with Similar Populations
- Guthrie County, IA R+41
- Wilcox County, AL D+22
- Essex County, VA R+8
- Colfax County, NE R+27
- Winnebago County, IA R+28
- Ripley County, MO R+70
- Bollinger County, MO R+70
- Mitchell County, IA R+36
- Walsh County, ND R+46
- Red Willow County, NE R+55
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.