Mormon Bar leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Mormon Bar typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mormon Bar, ~31% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mormon Bar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mormon Bar leans more Republican than 16 of 26 neighbors.
Mormon Bar runs about 43 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Mormon Bar is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mormon Bar. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+27), a spread of about 40 points.
Why Mormon Bar leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mormon Bar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mormon Bar votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Mormon Bar runs about 43 points more Republican.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Mormon Bar, CA sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Mormon Bar looks the way it does
Turnout in Mormon Bar sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mariposa, CA R+9
- Darrah, CA R+19
- Midpines, CA D+7
- Mount Bullion, CA R+14
- Catheys Valley, CA R+29
- Nipinnawasee, CA R+25
- Ahwahnee, CA R+30
- Fish Camp, CA R+6
- Raymond, CA R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Stanfield, AZ D+45
- Huntley, MT R+64
- Gibbon, MN R+55
- Frederic, MI R+34
- Carolina, RI R+9
- Cerro Gordo, IL R+41
- Creekside, PA R+60
- Pickett, WI R+35
- Knights Landing, CA R+20
- Tamassee, SC R+67
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.