National City, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in National City

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

National City leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.

 

About 41% of adults in National City typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in National City, ~25% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How National City compares

Among cities within 25 miles, National City leans more Democratic than 24 of 27 neighbors.

National City runs about 4 points more Democratic than California as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within National City. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+29) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+17), a spread of about 12 points.

Why National City leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for National City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in National City live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in National City have never been married, above 93% of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; National City, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in National City looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. National City is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 62% of households in National City rent, compared to around 43% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in National City report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.