Nelson leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Nelson typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nelson, ~21% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nelson compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Nelson leans more Republican than 26 of 40 neighbors.
Nelson runs about 57 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Nelson is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Nelson. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+31), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Nelson leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Nelson, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Nelson votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Nelson runs about 57 points more Republican.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Nelson, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Nelson looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Nelson is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Nelson have completed high school, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Durham, CA R+23
- Richvale, CA R+58
- Butte Valley, CA R+25
- Thermalito, CA R+25
- Honcut, CA R+41
- Biggs, CA R+49
- Pentz, CA R+36
- Oroville, CA R+21
- South Oroville, CA R+13
- Oregon City, CA R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Silver Lake, IA R+36
- Silver Ford Heights, PA R+67
- Vona, CO R+71
- Ross, IA R+57
- Dundee, KY R+70
- Keith, VA R+34
- Devonshire, NJ R+39
- Needmore, IN R+17
- Westerville, NE R+74
- Leon, AL R+49
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.