South Oroville leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 50% of adults in South Oroville typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Oroville, ~22% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Oroville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, South Oroville leans more Republican than 3 of 43 neighbors.
South Oroville runs about 33 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while South Oroville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within South Oroville. The north side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+26), a spread of about 28 points.
Why South Oroville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Oroville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
South Oroville votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 65%, modestly above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and South Oroville sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 86% of cities). South Oroville runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as South Oroville, CA does.
Why turnout in South Oroville looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 43% of households in South Oroville rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and South Oroville sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in South Oroville report food insecurity, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oroville, CA R+21
- Oroville East, CA R+29
- Thermalito, CA R+25
- Palermo, CA R+34
- Honcut, CA R+41
- Oregon City, CA R+41
- Robinsons Corner, CA R+46
- Biggs, CA R+49
- Bangor, CA R+35
- Rackerby, CA R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- La Verkin, UT R+63
- Paoli, IN R+48
- Nevada, TX R+55
- Fort Richardson, AK R+14
- Grimesland, NC R+26
- Cleveland, OK R+54
- Lexington, OK R+44
- Warsaw, NC D+8
- Eagle, WI R+40
- Mariposa, CA R+9
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.