New Oxford leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 81% of adults in New Oxford typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Oxford, ~25% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Oxford compares
Among cities within 25 miles, New Oxford leans more Republican than 54 of 114 neighbors.
New Oxford runs about 37 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within New Oxford. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 23 points.
Why New Oxford leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Oxford, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
New Oxford votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 41%, modestly above the Pennsylvania average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; New Oxford, PA sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in New Oxford looks the way it does
Turnout in New Oxford sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cedar Ridge, PA R+47
- Guldens, PA R+37
- Abbottstown, PA R+48
- Hampton, PA R+51
- McSherrystown, PA R+32
- Hunterstown, PA R+31
- Bonneauville, PA R+39
- Plainview, PA R+51
- Hanover, PA R+29
- East Berlin, PA R+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Arkadelphia, AR R+4
- Swarthmore, PA D+35
- Wills Point, TX R+65
- Bellbrook, OH R+19
- Inwood, WV R+39
- Harvard, IL R+11
- Oakland, NJ R+12
- Hamilton Square, NJ Even
- Monaca, PA R+21
- Ocean Pines, MD R+15
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.