Tonawanda, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Tonawanda

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Tonawanda leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.

 

About 73% of adults in Tonawanda typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tonawanda, ~39% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Tonawanda compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Tonawanda leans more Democratic than 72 of 80 neighbors.

Politically, Tonawanda sits close to the rest of New York.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tonawanda. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+24) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 23 points.

Why Tonawanda leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tonawanda, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 97% of residents in Tonawanda live in densely developed areas, about 60 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Tonawanda sits in the top quarter (about 37%, above 84% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in Tonawanda have never been married, above 86% of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tonawanda, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Tonawanda looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Tonawanda is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.